Labour leadership latest polls and odds: Who will win the race to replace Corbyn?

The three remaining candidates to take over as leader of the Labour Party are Sir Keir Starmer, Rebecca Long-Bailey and Lisa Nandy. The candidates will take part in a live televised debate on Thursday night as wider party voting gets underway ahead of the April 4 final announcement.

Who will win?

According to the latest polls, Sir Keir is the most likely candidate to win the top job.

A recent poll by YouGov and Sky News shows Sir Keir on course to win the first round with 53 percent of the vote.

The same poll showed Rebecca Long-Bailey on 31 percent and Lisa Nandy on 16 percent.

The odds reflect this likelihood too – below is a summary of each candidate and the latest odds, courtesy of The Pools.


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1. Sir Kier Starmer

Odds: Polling as most likely to take the job, with 1/20 odds (95.2 percent probability)


The 57-year-old shadow Brexit secretary was the first to make it on to the final ballot.

Sir Kier won the backing of Unison, the shopworkers’ union Usdaw, and the Socialist Environment and Resources Association (Sera), an affiliate group, and workers’ union Community.

And this week he received another boost when London Mayor Sadiq Khan threw his name behind Sir Keir.

Announcing his endorsement on Twitter, Mr Khan said Sir Keir was the “best person” to unite the party, “take the fight” to Boris Johnson and return Labour to power.

A supporter of remaining in the EU, Sir Keir was director of public prosecutions before becoming MP for Holborn and St Pancras in 2015.

But critics have accused him of pushing Labour into its “renegotiate then referendum” Brexit position ahead of the 2019 election, which produced the worst electoral defeat since 1935.

In his candidate statement, Sir Kier said: “I’m now standing to be leader of our Labour Party because I’m determined to unite our movement, take on the Tories and build a better future.

“Labour only wins when we’re united and when we have a radical vision of the future that people can trust.”

Sir Keir has recorded a series of small donations from Unison, the UK’s largest union which is backing his campaign, totalling just over £8,000.


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2. Rebecca Long-Bailey

Odds: Polling as second most likely to take the job, with 14/1 odds (6.7 percent probability)


The 40-year-old shadow business secretary was the third candidate to make it on to the members’ ballot after securing backing from Unite, the Bakers, Food and Allied Workers Union, the Communication Workers Union and the Fire Brigades Union.

Most recently, Ms Long-Bailey revealed her leadership campaign has had a significant cash boost from union Unite and campaign group Momentum.

Unite has spent more than £200,000 on her campaign, while Momentum contributed £120,000.

Seen as a Corbyn loyalist, she was one of a new generation of MPs on the left of the party.

She formed part of Mr Corbyn’s inner circle and represented Labour in an election TV debate last year.

She is widely regarded as the preferred candidate of Mr Corbyn and his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell.

But critics of the current leadership have accused her of representing “continuity Corbyn”.

In her candidate statement, Mrs Long-Bailey said: “To realise collective aspiration, Labour must take on vested interests, not accommodate them.

“Whether we live Blyth or Brixton, my vision of aspirational socialism and a democratic revolution will excite a movement for renewal.”

3. Lisa Nandy

Odds: Polling as least likely to take the job, with 20/1 odds (4.8 percent probability)


The 40-year-old MP for Wigan became the second candidate to secure her place on the members’ ballot when she won the backing of affiliate group Chinese for Labour, on top of being backed by the GMB union and the National Union of Mineworkers.

She has also won the backing of the Jewish Labour Movement.

Most recently, Ms Nandy declared a series of private donations from individuals, the largest of which was £25,000 from Jason Stockwood.

She is one of a group of shadow ministers who resigned from Jeremy Corbyn’s frontbench after the Brexit referendum.

She has become known for her support of smaller towns, saying the party needs to appeal to voters outside big cities if it is to win at the next election.

In her candidate statement, Ms Nandy said: “In December, voters sent us a clear message – change, or die.

“There are no more second chances for Labour.”

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