Joe Biden’s odds of securing another term in freefall as US troops leave Afghanistan

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The former Trump administration negotiated a deal with the Taliban which would see all US troops withdrawn after 20 years of presence in Afghanistan. After Joe Biden was elected President, he declared in April that all US troops would be out of Afghanistan by September. But as troops prepared to leave over the last few months, the Taliban gained momentum, eventually seizing the Afghan capital of Kabul on Sunday.

As the Taliban consolidates its power in Afghanistan, the US is scrambling to evacuate troops and staff from the region.

On Wednesday, a White House official confirmed Mr Biden and national security officers had discussed efforts to speed up evacuations of US citizens and vulnerable Afghans out of the country.

Mr Biden has faced criticism for continuing with the deal to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan altogether.

But Mr Biden has also faced significant scrutiny over the US’ hasty exit from Afghanistan in recent days.

The President said he stood “squarely behind” his decision to withdraw American forces from Afghanistan in an address on Monday.

But he did acknowledge the Taliban’s rise to power unfolded quicker than anticipated.

Mr Biden said during his White House address: “After 20 years, I’ve learned the hard way that there was never a good time to withdraw US forces.

“That’s why we’re still there. We were clear-eyed about the risk.

“We planned for every contingency but I always promised the American people that I would be straight with you.

“The truth is, this did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated.

“So, what’s happened? Afghanistan political leaders gave up and fled the country.

“The Afghan military collapsed sometimes without trying to fight.”

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According to the latest odds, the situation in Afghanistan has significantly impacted the popularity of the Biden administration.

According to Smarkets Politics Prices, Joe Biden’s chance of re-election has fallen from 25 percent to 21 percent in 72 hours.

Vice-president Kamala Harris’ chance of victory in 2024 has also dropped from a high of 21 percent back in April to just 13 percent now.

According to Smarkets analysis, a comeback for former president Donald Trump is rated the next most likely outcome, with Mr Trump rated 12 percent likely based on the odds for a return to the White House.

Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets, said: “With the exception of Donald Trump, Joe Biden’s approval rating continues to lag behind most recent Presidents at this stage of their tenure.

“For a sitting president to be given only a 21 percent chance of re-election by Smarkets traders is staggeringly low.

“Kamala Harris’s prospects had been on the downgrade for some time and both could still have further to fall given the administration’s foreign policy problems.”

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Mr Biden’s approval rating dropped by seven percentage points in a poll conducted on Monday.

The national opinion poll found that 46 percent of American adults approved of Mr Biden’s performance in office, the lowest recorded in weekly polls that started when Biden took office in January.

This figure was also down from the 53 percent who felt the same way in a similar Reuters/Ipsos poll that ran on Friday.

The poll would suggest Mr Biden’s drop in approval coincided with the Taliban’s offensive over the weekend, which saw the Afghan capital of Kabul seized on Sunday.

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